2024 Tus sau: Leah Sherlock | [email protected]. Kawg hloov kho: 2023-12-17 05:37
Qhov kev txaus siab ntawm tus neeg tau txais txiaj ntsig sai yam tsis muaj kev ua haujlwm ntxiv tau ua rau muaj kev nyiam ntawm cov twv txiaj yuam pov thiab sweepstakes thiab lwm yam kev twv txiaj. Feem ntau, bets yog ua raws li intuition los yog kiag li los ntawm lub caij nyoog. Txawm li cas los xij, qee tus ntseeg tias koj yuav tsum tsis txhob cia siab rau qhov hmoov zoo xwb, tab sis koj tuaj yeem suav cov thawj koom ruam yuav ua rau yeej. Rau qhov no, ntau cov qauv lej pib siv. Ib lub tswv yim zoo li no yog Kelly cov qauv.
About strategy
Lub tswv yim nyiaj txiag no tau tsim los ntawm John Kelly hauv xyoo 1956. Nws cov ntsiab lus yog los txiav txim qhov nyiaj ntawm thawj koom ruam nyob ntawm tus neeg ua si lub txhab nyiaj muaj. Kev siv lub tswv yim yog qhov nyuaj heev. Thiab thaum xub thawj, qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev poob tseem ceeb tshaj qhov feem pua ntawm kev ua tiav kev twv txiaj. Tsis tas li ntawd, nws tsis tiv thaiv kev swb thiab tsis lav tias txhua qhov kev twv txiaj tau txiav txim siab siv nws,yuav yeej. Qhov no siv rau tag nrho lwm cov tswv yim uas twb muaj lawm. Tsis muaj leej twg hauv keeb kwm tseem tsis tau tuaj yeem los nrog cov qauv zoo tshaj plaws uas tso cai rau koj ib txwm yeej ntawm qhov twv txiaj yuam pov, ntawm kev sib pauv khoom lag luam lossis ntawm qhov sweepstakes.
Lub ntsiab lus ntawm Kelly qhov kev ntsuas yog xam qhov tshwm sim ntawm qhov tshwm sim raws li kev txheeb xyuas tseeb ntawm ntau yam thiab cov lus xaus raws li lawv. Koj tus kheej qhov kev ntsuam xyuas ntawm kev txhim kho cov xwm txheej yuav tsum txawv ntawm lwm tus, piv txwv li, tus kws sau ntawv, ntseeg. Ua ntej koj yuav tsum tau saib rau cov bets uas, nyob rau hauv lub tswv yim ntawm cov neeg uas ua ntawv, yog overpriced los ntawm cov bookmakers. Yog hais tias, raws li tus neeg uas ua ntawv, lawv tsis raug, ces lawv yuav tsum tau bet rau lawv, tus nqi ntawm cov uas yuav tsum tau muab xam los ntawm cov formula.
calculation formula
Bet size=(bookmaker's oddsplayer's event score - 1)/(bookmaker's odds - 1)
Tus neeg ua si qhov kev ntaus nqi yog nkag mus rau hauv cov qauv ua tus lej lej. Ntawd yog, qhov tshwm sim, nthuav tawm raws li feem pua, yuav tsum muab faib los ntawm 100, thiab tus lej tshwm sim nkag mus rau hauv cov qauv.
Yuav suav li cas
Ib cheeb tsam uas Kelly Criterion feem ntau siv yog hauv kev twv txiaj. Technically, nws tsis yooj yim rau xam tus thawj koom ruam uas tso tau.
Raws li qhov loj ntawm tus neeg ua si cov nyiaj. Piv txwv li, nws yog sib npaug rau ib txhiab.
Tus kws sau ntawv ntseeg tias ncaws pob "A" yuav yeej club "B" thiab qhov txawv yog 2.0. Tus neeg ua si ntseeg tias tus nqi siab dhau lawm. Qhov laj thawj yog vim li cas nws txoj kev xavtxawv, tej zaum yuav txawv heev. Piv txwv li, club "A" muaj lub cev zoo dua qub, club "B" muaj ntau tus neeg raug mob, uas tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau kev sib koom tes. Club "A" feem ntau ua tau zoo nyob rau hauv ib feem ntawm lub caij no. Raws li qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev tshuaj xyuas, tus neeg ua si xav tias qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev yeej club "A" yog 58% (0.58).
Kev suav yuav zoo li no:
(2, 00. 58–1)/(2–1)=0, 176
Yuav hloov mus rau cov ntsiab lus nyiaj txiag, qhov loj ntawm thawj koom ruam yuav tsum tau muab faib ua 100. Raws li qhov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev suav nrog Kelly cov qauv, tus thawj koom ruam yuav yog 176.
Yog tias qhov tshwm sim tsis zoo, qhov thawj koom ruam tom ntej yog xam raws li cov nyiaj seem, uas yog, los ntawm 824.
Qhov kev suav zoo tshaj plaws
Ib yam ntawm kev ua tiav yog qhov kev ntsuam xyuas qhov tseeb ntawm qhov muaj tseeb. Txhawm rau ua qhov no, nws raug nquahu kom nqa nws tawm thaum nyob hauv lub cev thiab lub hlwb zoo. Kev qaug zog, kev xav tsis zoo tom qab poob, kev zoo siab tom qab kev yeej ua rau muaj peev xwm ua yuam kev nrog kev ntsuam xyuas ntawm cov xwm txheej, thiab Kelly cov txheej txheem yuav suav tsis raug.
Qhov tshwm sim uas cov xwm txheej yuav tshwm sim tsis tuaj yeem yog 100% lossis ze rau nws.
Koj yuav tsum tsis txhob muaj qhov sib txawv tsawg. Nws yog qhov tsim nyog tias lawv tsis qis dua 1.8. Txwv tsis pub, qhov nce yuav tsis tsim nyog, thiab koj yuav tsum siv sijhawm tsawg dua rau kev tshuaj ntsuam.
Flaws of the strategy
Lub Kelly Criterion yog lub tswv yim uas tsis tso cai rau koj kom nplua nuj tam sim ntawd. Raws li cov kws tshaj lij, qhov nyiaj tau los nruab nrab ntawm ib tus nqi khiav yog 5%. Nwsib qho kev nce ntxiv yog ua tau nrog qhov tseeb qhov kev twv ua ntej ntawm cov xwm txheej, uas tsis tas li tshwm sim. Qhov no yuav tsum muaj kev paub dhau los, yog li cov neeg pib tshiab tau qhia kom tsis txhob siv lub tswv yim no.
Yuav kom yeej ntau, koj yuav tsum muaj lub txhab nyiaj zoo zoo. Cov kws tshaj lij hais tias nws yuav tsum sib npaug li tsawg kawg 15 tus neeg ua si qhov nruab nrab cov ceg txheem ntseeg.
txiaj ntsig ntawm lub tswv yim
Qhov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb ntawm Kelly Criterion yog kev tiv thaiv zoo zoo. Yog hais tias ib tug neeg ua yuam kev thiab poob qhov thawj koom ruam, qhov no yog deb ntawm tag nrho cov nyiaj uas nws muaj. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, thaum lub txhab nyiaj txo qis, qhov loj ntawm cov thawj koom ruam tom ntej yuav txo qis. Yog li ntawd, koj tuaj yeem ua si tau ntev. Yog tias kev poob raug hloov los ntawm yeej, uas yuav luag ib txwm tshwm sim, ces koj tuaj yeem ua si yuav luag tsis muaj qhov kawg.
Rau cov neeg uas nyuam qhuav pib siv txoj kev Kelly Criterion, nws raug nquahu kom tsis txhob tso thawj koom ruam uas tshwm sim los ntawm kev suav los ntawm cov qauv, nws tuaj yeem ua kom tsawg dua lossis txo qis ib nrab. Raws li koj tau txais cov kev paub tsim nyog hauv thaj tsam ntawm kev ntsuas cov coefficients ntawm bookmakers thiab txhim kho txoj hauv kev zoo rau kev tsom xam thiab kev kwv yees ntawm cov xwm txheej, tus thawj koom ruam tuaj yeem sib npaug ntawm qhov suav.
Ntxiv rau qhov no, lub tswv yim no tso cai rau koj kom khwv tau ntau zaus. Nrog rau kev txheeb xyuas thiab kev suav kom raug, cov nyiaj tau los ruaj khov yog lav. Lub lauj kaub siab dua, qhov ntau dua qhov thawj koom ruam, uas tso cai rau koj kom nce koj qhov kev yeej. Tab sis nws kuj nce qhov poob thaum muaj qhov yuam kev.
Kelly Criterion yog siv hauv kev sib pauv khoom lag luam, twv txiaj yuam pov thiab twv txiaj kis las.kev sib tw. Vim yog qhov nyuaj ntawm lub tswv yim, ntau tus neeg ua si nyiam siv lwm cov tswv yim uas zoo li zoo. Hauv qhov no, tus neeg ua si tsis tas yuav txwv nws tus kheej kom siv tib txoj kev suav, nws tuaj yeem siv ob peb zaug tib lub sijhawm.
Pom zoo:
Qhov zoo tshaj plaws hluav taws xob guitar: ib qho kev nthuav dav ntawm cov qauv nrov, cov tuam ntxhab, cov lus piav qhia thiab cov lus qhia tshwj xeeb
Txheej txheem cej luam ntawm qhov zoo tshaj plaws guitar manufacturers, pab xaiv ib tug hluav taws xob guitar rau ib tug beginner, uas guitar xaiv, qhov zoo tshaj plaws hluav taws xob guitars, pheej yig tshaj thiab zoo tshaj plaws guitars nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no, xaiv cov hlua rau guitars, hluav taws xob guitar rau beginners, guitar solos, kev sib piv ntawm manufacturers - txog tag nrho cov no nyob rau hauv tsab xov xwm
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